SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0136 PM CST Fri Nov 20 2020 Valid 202000Z - 211200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The threat for thunderstorms appears negligible through tonight. ...20Z Outlook Update... The previously issued outlook is being maintained with no changes. ..Kerr.. 11/20/2020 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1016 AM CST Fri Nov 20 2020/ ...Synopsis... A largely quiescent pattern will continue over the CONUS through this period, with zonal flow over the northern tier of states and weak flow aloft over the Gulf coast/Southeast. A few convective showers will be possible across south FL in an easterly flow regime as a post-frontal air mass modifies over time, though a pronounced temperature inversion in the 850-700 mb layer should limit any thunderstorm potential. Farther west, low-level moisture is returning northward into east TX, but substantial convective inhibition and a lack of forcing for ascent will preclude thunderstorms. Gradual moistening in a frontal zone oriented roughly along the I-44 corridor from MO into OK could lead to the development of weak buoyancy rooted in the 850-700 mb layer from 06-12z. Only weak ascent and some convective inhibition are expected along the front until near or after the end of this forecast period, which suggests that any elevated convective showers over southwest MO should remain too shallow/weak for lightning production until the day 2 period.
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