Day 4-8 Outlook

Day 4-8 Outlook Image

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0348 AM CST Fri Nov 20 2020

Valid 231200Z - 281200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Organized severe thunderstorm potential appears low across the CONUS
on Day 4/Monday as a large-scale upper trough shifts eastward from
the western states to the Plains. Lee cyclogenesis should occur over
the central Plains ahead of the amplifying upper trough, with some
low-level moisture return occurring over the southern Plains. As the
southern portion of the upper trough consolidates and ejects
eastward across the southern Plains into the lower MS Valley and
Southeast from Day 5/Tuesday into Day 6/Wednesday, some severe
thunderstorm potential could materialize across parts of these
regions. At this point, instability appears fairly limited, which
should keep any severe threat isolated/marginal.

The upper trough may outpace the limited low-level moisture by Day
7/Thursday across parts of the eastern states, which suggests that
the severe risk will probably be lower compared to prior days. By
the end of next week, large differences emerge in medium-range
guidance regarding the evolution of another upper trough over the
western/central CONUS. Depending on this trough's amplification and
the degree of low-level moisture return, it appears possible that a
severe threat could develop across parts of the southern Plains
around Day 8/Friday. Regardless, predictability remains very low at
this extended time frame.

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