SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 PM CST Fri Nov 20 2020 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. through tonight. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough is forecast to amplify and move southeastward from the northern Rockies this morning into the central Plains by late tonight. At the surface, a cold front will sag southward across the southern Plains and Ozark Plateau, as a weak surface wave develops along the boundary and moves northeastward toward the mid-MS Valley by Sunday morning. ...South-central Plains into the Ozark Plateau/Mid-MS Valley... In advance of the primary shortwave trough moving into the central Plains, one or more lower-amplitude vorticity maxima will likely traverse the central Plains into the mid-MS Valley this afternoon into tonight. Ascent attendant to these features will likely result in the development of primarily elevated convection to the north of the cold front. The most robust convection is currently anticipated from northeast OK into the Ozark Plateau this evening, where modest low-level moisture and relatively steep midlevel lapse rates may support MUCAPE up to 500 J/kg. Small hail may occur with the strongest storms, but the severe risk appears low at this time. Convection should spread into the mid-MS Valley late tonight. ...South FL... While very dry air aloft and a warm layer based roughly around 700 mb will continue to suppress attempts at deep convection during much of the day, a gradual increase in moisture/instability across south FL may support the potential for isolated thunderstorm development by late afternoon/evening, primarily across the southeast portion of the peninsula. ..Dean.. 11/21/2020
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