SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0212 AM CST Sat Nov 21 2020 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected across the contiguous United States on Monday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A pair of large-scale upper troughs will move eastward across the CONUS on Monday. Strong low-level warm/moist advection ahead of the upper trough over the eastern states may support just enough elevated instability to generate isolated lightning flashes across parts of coastal MA/ME early in the period. Any thunderstorm potential should shift quickly east-northeastward and offshore through the day in tandem with the progression of the upper trough. The upper trough over the western CONUS should likewise progress eastward, with the southern portion of this trough perhaps closing off near the Four Corners late Monday night. Although moisture will likely remain quite limited, cooling mid-level temperatures and strong forcing for ascent associated with the upper trough should support isolated thunderstorms across parts of the southern/central Rockies through the period. At the surface, lee cyclogenesis is forecast to occur across the central High Plains, with modest low-level moisture return occurring across portions of the southern/central Plains ahead of the developing low. Isolated thunderstorms may also occur across this area, mainly Monday night into early Tuesday morning. Instability should remain fairly weak, with any storms that form likely remaining elevated. ..Gleason.. 11/21/2020
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