SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0212 AM CST Sat Nov 21 2020

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected across the
contiguous United States on Monday.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
A pair of large-scale upper troughs will move eastward across the
CONUS on Monday. Strong low-level warm/moist advection ahead of the
upper trough over the eastern states may support just enough
elevated instability to generate isolated lightning flashes across
parts of coastal MA/ME early in the period. Any thunderstorm
potential should shift quickly east-northeastward and offshore
through the day in tandem with the progression of the upper trough.

The upper trough over the western CONUS should likewise progress
eastward, with the southern portion of this trough perhaps closing
off near the Four Corners late Monday night. Although moisture will
likely remain quite limited, cooling mid-level temperatures and
strong forcing for ascent associated with the upper trough should
support isolated thunderstorms across parts of the southern/central
Rockies through the period. At the surface, lee cyclogenesis is
forecast to occur across the central High Plains, with modest
low-level moisture return occurring across portions of the
southern/central Plains ahead of the developing low. Isolated
thunderstorms may also occur across this area, mainly Monday night
into early Tuesday morning. Instability should remain fairly weak,
with any storms that form likely remaining elevated.

..Gleason.. 11/21/2020

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