SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0659 AM CST Sat Nov 21 2020 Valid 211300Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough over the Northern Rockies will amplify and dig southeastward over the north-central Plains and Upper Midwest through early Sunday. At the surface, a cold front will sag southward across the southern Plains and Ozark Plateau, as a weak surface wave develops along the boundary and moves northeastward toward the middle Mississippi River Valley by Sunday morning. ...South-central Plains and Ozarks... In advance of the primary shortwave trough moving into the north-central Plains, one or more lower-amplitude vorticity maxima will likely traverse the central Plains into the middle Mississippi Valley this afternoon into tonight. Ascent attendant to these features will likely result in the development of primarily elevated convection to the north of the southwest/northeast-oriented front across the region. The most robust/sustained convection is expected across northeast Oklahoma into the Ozark Plateau this evening, where modest low-level moisture and relatively steep mid-level lapse rates may support MUCAPE up to 500 J/kg. Instances of small hail cannot be ruled out with the strongest storms, but the severe risk is currently expected to remain low. ...South Florida... Very dry air aloft and a warm layer/mid-level inversion based roughly around 700 mb will continue to generally suppress deep convection during much of the day. However, a gradual increase in moisture/instability across south Florida may support the potential for a few thunderstorms, primarily across the southeast portion of the Florida Peninsula during the mid/late afternoon and early evening. ..Guyer.. 11/21/2020
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