SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0659 AM CST Sat Nov 21 2020

Valid 211300Z - 221200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight.

...Synopsis...
A shortwave trough over the Northern Rockies will amplify and dig
southeastward over the north-central Plains and Upper Midwest
through early Sunday. At the surface, a cold front will sag
southward across the southern Plains and Ozark Plateau, as a weak
surface wave develops along the boundary and moves northeastward
toward the middle Mississippi River Valley by Sunday morning.

...South-central Plains and Ozarks...
In advance of the primary shortwave trough moving into the
north-central Plains, one or more lower-amplitude vorticity maxima
will likely traverse the central Plains into the middle Mississippi
Valley this afternoon into tonight. Ascent attendant to these
features will likely result in the development of primarily elevated
convection to the north of the southwest/northeast-oriented front
across the region. The most robust/sustained convection is expected
across northeast Oklahoma into the Ozark Plateau this evening, where
modest low-level moisture and relatively steep mid-level lapse rates
may support MUCAPE up to 500 J/kg. Instances of small hail cannot be
ruled out with the strongest storms, but the severe risk is
currently expected to remain low.

...South Florida...
Very dry air aloft and a warm layer/mid-level inversion based
roughly around 700 mb will continue to generally suppress deep
convection during much of the day. However, a gradual increase in
moisture/instability across south Florida may support the potential
for a few thunderstorms, primarily across the southeast portion of
the Florida Peninsula during the mid/late afternoon and early
evening.

..Guyer.. 11/21/2020

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