SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1017 AM CST Sat Nov 21 2020 Valid 211630Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight. ...Synopsis... A series of low-amplitude shortwave troughs will move eastward from the Four Corners to the lower OH Valley, in advance of an amplifying northern stream trough over the upper-middle MO Valley. The northward return of boundary-layer dewpoints in the low-mid 60s across east TX will contribute to weak buoyancy along a frontal zone from southern OK into the Ozarks. A few elevated thunderstorms are expected later today into tonight atop the frontal surface, in association with embedded speed maxima progressing eastward from northern NM/southern CO. Other isolated thunderstorms may also occur this afternoon into tonight along the path of the embedded speed maxima, originating with weak buoyancy over the higher terrain over northern NM/southern CO and spreading eastward above the shallow cool air mass over the southern High Plains. Otherwise, continued low-level air mass modification and some cooling in the 850-700 mb layer noted from 00z to 12z at Miami may allow sufficiently deep convection for isolated lightning flashes near the southeast FL coast. ..Thompson.. 11/21/2020
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