SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Outlook Image

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1017 AM CST Sat Nov 21 2020

Valid 211630Z - 221200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight.

...Synopsis...
A series of low-amplitude shortwave troughs will move eastward from
the Four Corners to the lower OH Valley, in advance of an amplifying
northern stream trough over the upper-middle MO Valley.  The
northward return of boundary-layer dewpoints in the low-mid 60s
across east TX will contribute to weak buoyancy along a frontal zone
from southern OK into the Ozarks.  A few elevated thunderstorms are
expected later today into tonight atop the frontal surface, in
association with embedded speed maxima progressing eastward from
northern NM/southern CO.  Other isolated thunderstorms may also
occur this afternoon into tonight along the path of the embedded
speed maxima, originating with weak buoyancy over the higher terrain
over northern NM/southern CO and spreading eastward above the
shallow cool air mass over the southern High Plains.

Otherwise, continued low-level air mass modification and some
cooling in the 850-700 mb layer noted from 00z to 12z at Miami may
allow sufficiently deep convection for isolated lightning flashes
near the southeast FL coast.

..Thompson.. 11/21/2020

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