SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook

Day 2 Outlook Image

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1111 AM CST Sat Nov 21 2020

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z


Organized severe thunderstorms appear unlikely across the contiguous
United States on Sunday.

Shortwave trough currently moving into the northern Rockies is
forecast to continue southeastward across the Plains today and
tonight. By early Sunday, this shortwave will likely extend from the
Upper MS Valley into central KS. This shortwave is expected to
remain progressive on Sunday, ending the period extending from the
Upper OH Valley southward into the western Carolinas. 

Surface low associated with this system will be centered the near
confluence of the MS and OH Rivers early Sunday, before continuing
quickly northeastward throughout the day while occluding. An
attendant cold front will extend southwestward from this low and is
forecast to progress through the southern Plains, mid/low MS Valley,
and OH/TN Valley throughout the period. Limited low-level moisture
will be in place ahead of the front early in the period from the
southern Plains into the Lower OH and TN Valley, with some isolated
lightning flashes possible along and behind the front within this
corridor. Some isolated flashes are also possible early Monday
morning over the eastern Carolinas amid modest low-level moisture
advection ahead of the approaching front.

Elsewhere, isolated thunderstorms may occur Sunday across parts of
the FL Peninsula and the Keys as weak low-level easterly flow
continues, and the Four Corners vicinity into western CO as upper
troughing amplifies over the western CONUS late in the period.

..Mosier.. 11/21/2020

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