SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0633 PM CST Sat Nov 21 2020 Valid 220100Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected tonight. ...01z Update... Early-evening water-vapor imagery clearly depicts a well-defined mid-level short-wave trough over the central High Plains, shifting east in line with earlier model guidance. Large-scale forcing for ascent is spreading downstream ahead of this feature across OK/southeast KS into the Ozarks. Scattered convection, much of it deep enough to generate lightning, has developed north of the frontal zone from northern OK into southern MO. 00z soundings along the cool side of the front exhibit MUCAPE on the order of 400 J/kg if lifting a parcel near 850mb. Weak warm advection/frontal ascent will continue to aid scattered thunderstorms along this corridor, and no appreciable changes to earlier 10 percent thunder probabilities are warranted. ..Darrow.. 11/22/2020
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