SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Outlook Image

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0633 PM CST Sat Nov 21 2020

Valid 220100Z - 221200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected tonight.

...01z Update...

Early-evening water-vapor imagery clearly depicts a well-defined
mid-level short-wave trough over the central High Plains, shifting
east in line with earlier model guidance. Large-scale forcing for
ascent is spreading downstream ahead of this feature across
OK/southeast KS into the Ozarks. Scattered convection, much of it
deep enough to generate lightning, has developed north of the
frontal zone from northern OK into southern MO.  00z soundings along
the cool side of the front exhibit MUCAPE on the order of 400 J/kg
if lifting a parcel near 850mb. Weak warm advection/frontal ascent
will continue to aid scattered thunderstorms along this corridor,
and no appreciable changes to earlier 10 percent thunder
probabilities are warranted.

..Darrow.. 11/22/2020

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