SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 PM CST Sat Nov 21 2020 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms appear unlikely across the U.S. today into tonight. ...Synopsis... A strong shortwave trough is forecast to move from the central/northern Plains this morning quickly eastward to the lower Great Lakes region by 12Z Monday. In conjunction with this feature, a weak surface low will slowly deepen and move northeastward from the OH Valley this morning into portions of New England by Monday morning. Upstream, another mid/upper-level trough will deepen over the western CONUS through the period. ...Carolinas... Thunderstorm potential is expected to increase this evening into the overnight hours across the eastern Carolinas, as moisture and instability gradually increase ahead of an approaching cold front. Inland storms are expected to remain elevated, though surface-based convection cannot be entirely ruled out near the Outer Banks. At this time, the best potential for organized storms is expected to remain offshore. ...New England... Late tonight into early Monday morning, a southerly low-level jet will advect richer Atlantic low-level moisture into portions of southern New England. Some convection is likely to develop within a warm-advection regime, with a few lightning strikes possible in conjunction with the strongest updrafts. While some stronger gusts cannot be entirely ruled out, convection is expected to generally remain disorganized through 12Z Monday, with the cold front not expected to move through the region until later in the day Monday. ...Southern Plains into the TN Valley... Weak convection is likely to be ongoing from southern OK/north TX eastward into parts of TN/KY at the start of the period. Some lightning activity will be possible for a few hours this morning before this convection weakens by afternoon. ...Florida... Periodic bouts of weak convection may be capable of a few lightning strikes across mainly the eastern part of the FL Peninsula today, though most showers will struggle to deepen due to the presence of dry air aloft and lack of large-scale ascent across the region. ...Western CO/Northwest NM... As the mid/upper-level trough deepens over the West, gradually increasing moisture and instability may support convection capable of sporadic lightning activity across portions of northwest NM/western CO this evening. ..Dean.. 11/22/2020
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