SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0700 AM CST Sun Nov 22 2020 Valid 221300Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected across the U.S. today or tonight. ...Synopsis... A strong shortwave trough is forecast to move from the central/northern Plains this morning quickly eastward to the lower Great Lakes region by 12Z Monday. In conjunction with this feature, a weak surface low will slowly deepen and move northeastward from the Ohio Valley this morning into portions of New England by Monday morning. Upstream, another mid/upper-level trough will deepen over the western CONUS tonight. ...Carolinas... Thunderstorm potential is expected to increase this evening into the overnight across the eastern Carolinas, as moisture and instability gradually increase ahead of the quickly approaching upstream shortwave trough and cold front. Thunderstorms across inland areas are expected to remain elevated, though surface-based convection cannot be entirely ruled out near the Outer Banks. At this time, the best potential for stronger and more organized storms tonight is expected to remain offshore. ...New England... Late tonight into early Monday morning, a southerly low-level jet will advect richer Atlantic low-level moisture into portions of southern New England. Some convection is likely to develop within a warm-advection regime, with a few lightning strikes possible in conjunction with the strongest updrafts. While some stronger gusts cannot be entirely ruled out, convection is expected to generally remain disorganized through 12Z Monday, with the cold front not expected to move through the region until later in the day Monday. ...Southern Plains to the Tennessee Valley... West/east bands of convection will persist today from southern Oklahoma/north Texas into Arkansas and parts of Tennessee and Kentucky. Occasional lightning flashes will remain possible this morning, but overall convective intensity will otherwise wane with diminishing thunderstorm potential into the afternoon. ...Florida... Periodic bouts of weak convection may be capable of a few lightning flashes across mainly the eastern part of the Florida Peninsula today, though most showers will struggle to deepen due to the presence of dry air aloft and lack of large-scale ascent across the region. ...Western Colorado/Northwest New Mexico... As the mid/upper-level trough deepens over the West, gradually increasing moisture and instability may support convection capable of sporadic lightning activity across portions of northwest New Mexico/western Colorado tonight. ..Guyer.. 11/22/2020
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