SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook

Day 2 Outlook Image

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1129 AM CST Sun Nov 22 2020

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms appear unlikely across the contiguous
United States on Monday.

...Synopsis...
Shortwave trough currently moving through Mid MS and OH Valleys is
expected to extend from the Lower Great Lakes into the
western/central Carolinas by early Monday morning. This system is
forecast to obtain an increasingly negative tilt as it continues
northeastward through the Northeast States. An attendant surface low
will start the period over the southern Saint Lawrence Valley, with
a cold front extending southeastward into southern New England and
then southward/southwestward off the East Coast. 

A small portion of southern New England, including RI and eastern
MA/Cape Cod, may still be ahead of this front early Monday morning.
Mid-50s dewpoints are expected to be in place, contributing to the
potential for modest instability and a few, deeper convective cores
along the front. These deeper cores combined with moderate
low/mid-level flow could result in a few strong wind gusts. However,
spatial and temporal limit of the threat coupled with only marginal
potential precludes introducing any probabilities with this outlook.

Farther west, a deep shortwave trough is forecast to extend from
western British Columbia into central CA at the beginning of the
period. This shortwave is expected to deepen throughout the day
Monday, contributing to the development of a closed cyclone centered
over the Four Corners by early Tuesday morning. Downstream surface
cyclogenesis is anticipated over the central High Plains by Monday
evening, with the resulting surface low then moving eastward into
the central Plains. Limited moisture return ahead of this low will
keep the surface-based thunderstorm potential minimal. However, cold
mid-level temperatures and strong forcing for ascent attendant to
the mid/upper cyclone will likely contribute to isolated lightning
flashes within the deeper convective cores. A few flashes are also
possible in the stronger elevated storms within the warm sector.

..Mosier.. 11/22/2020

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