SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CST Sun Nov 22 2020 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms appear unlikely across the contiguous United States on Monday. ...Synopsis... Shortwave trough currently moving through Mid MS and OH Valleys is expected to extend from the Lower Great Lakes into the western/central Carolinas by early Monday morning. This system is forecast to obtain an increasingly negative tilt as it continues northeastward through the Northeast States. An attendant surface low will start the period over the southern Saint Lawrence Valley, with a cold front extending southeastward into southern New England and then southward/southwestward off the East Coast. A small portion of southern New England, including RI and eastern MA/Cape Cod, may still be ahead of this front early Monday morning. Mid-50s dewpoints are expected to be in place, contributing to the potential for modest instability and a few, deeper convective cores along the front. These deeper cores combined with moderate low/mid-level flow could result in a few strong wind gusts. However, spatial and temporal limit of the threat coupled with only marginal potential precludes introducing any probabilities with this outlook. Farther west, a deep shortwave trough is forecast to extend from western British Columbia into central CA at the beginning of the period. This shortwave is expected to deepen throughout the day Monday, contributing to the development of a closed cyclone centered over the Four Corners by early Tuesday morning. Downstream surface cyclogenesis is anticipated over the central High Plains by Monday evening, with the resulting surface low then moving eastward into the central Plains. Limited moisture return ahead of this low will keep the surface-based thunderstorm potential minimal. However, cold mid-level temperatures and strong forcing for ascent attendant to the mid/upper cyclone will likely contribute to isolated lightning flashes within the deeper convective cores. A few flashes are also possible in the stronger elevated storms within the warm sector. ..Mosier.. 11/22/2020
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