SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0140 PM CST Sun Nov 22 2020 Valid 222000Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected across the U.S. today or tonight. ...20Z Update... Forecast outlined in the previous outlook (discussion below) remains valid, with no changes needed to the ongoing general thunderstorm areas. ..Mosier.. 11/22/2020 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1021 AM CST Sun Nov 22 2020/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel shortwave trough over the middle and upper MS Valley will progress eastward over the OH Valley by tonight, as an associated surface cyclone develops northeastward from the lower OH Valley this morning to the lower Great Lakes overnight. East of the surface cyclone and a trailing cold front, a moistening low-level air mass will spread northward across the southeast Atlantic coast today, and into southern New England late in the period. Ongoing convection along the FL Atlantic coast will develop gradually northward toward eastern NC tonight, and will reach southern New England before 12z. The greater threat for more concentrated or organized storms should remain just off the NC coast tonight, in proximity to the Gulf Stream. Otherwise, a lead shortwave trough over CA/southern NV this morning will eject northeastward through this evening, in advance of a shortwave trough that will move inland over CA/NV by the end of the period. A gradual increase in low-midlevel moisture and ascent in a warm advection regime will contribute to weak buoyancy and the threat for isolated lightning flashes overnight in the vicinity of the San Juan Mountains in southwest CO.
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