SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0140 PM CST Sun Nov 22 2020

Valid 222000Z - 231200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected across the U.S. today or
tonight.

...20Z Update...
Forecast outlined in the previous outlook (discussion below) remains
valid, with no changes needed to the ongoing general thunderstorm
areas.

..Mosier.. 11/22/2020

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1021 AM CST Sun Nov 22 2020/

...Synopsis...
A midlevel shortwave trough over the middle and upper MS Valley will
progress eastward over the OH Valley by tonight, as an associated
surface cyclone develops northeastward from the lower OH Valley this
morning to the lower Great Lakes overnight.  East of the surface
cyclone and a trailing cold front, a moistening low-level air mass
will spread northward across the southeast Atlantic coast today, and
into southern New England late in the period.  Ongoing convection
along the FL Atlantic coast will develop gradually northward toward
eastern NC tonight, and will reach southern New England before 12z. 
The greater threat for more concentrated or organized storms should
remain just off the NC coast tonight, in proximity to the Gulf
Stream.

Otherwise, a lead shortwave trough over CA/southern NV this morning
will eject northeastward through this evening, in advance of a
shortwave trough that will move inland over CA/NV by the end of the
period.  A gradual increase in low-midlevel moisture and ascent in a
warm advection regime will contribute to weak buoyancy and the
threat for isolated lightning flashes overnight in the vicinity of
the San Juan Mountains in southwest CO.

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