Day 4-8 Outlook

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0326 AM CST Sun Nov 22 2020

Valid 251200Z - 301200Z

...DISCUSSION...
As an upper trough/low moves across the central/eastern CONUS on Day
4/Wednesday, an isolated/marginal severe risk may continue across
parts of the lower MS Valley, TN Valley, and Southeast. Limited
low-level moisture and weak instability forecast across these
regions should temper the overall severe risk. Another large-scale
upper trough is forecast to develop eastward across the
western/central CONUS late this upcoming week. Medium-range guidance
is in general agreement with this scenario, although details in
surface low placement across the southern Plains and the northward
extent of the warm sector ahead of the upper trough remain rather
unclear. An organized severe thunderstorm risk appears possible in
association with this ejecting upper trough/low from Day 6/Friday
through Day 8/Sunday over some portion of the southern Plains, lower
MS Valley, and Southeast. Regardless, the timing/amplitude of this
feature and amount of instability that may be present remain too
uncertain to include 15% severe probabilities at this extended time
frame.

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