Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0326 AM CST Sun Nov 22 2020 Valid 251200Z - 301200Z ...DISCUSSION... As an upper trough/low moves across the central/eastern CONUS on Day 4/Wednesday, an isolated/marginal severe risk may continue across parts of the lower MS Valley, TN Valley, and Southeast. Limited low-level moisture and weak instability forecast across these regions should temper the overall severe risk. Another large-scale upper trough is forecast to develop eastward across the western/central CONUS late this upcoming week. Medium-range guidance is in general agreement with this scenario, although details in surface low placement across the southern Plains and the northward extent of the warm sector ahead of the upper trough remain rather unclear. An organized severe thunderstorm risk appears possible in association with this ejecting upper trough/low from Day 6/Friday through Day 8/Sunday over some portion of the southern Plains, lower MS Valley, and Southeast. Regardless, the timing/amplitude of this feature and amount of instability that may be present remain too uncertain to include 15% severe probabilities at this extended time frame.
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