SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0700 AM CST Mon Nov 23 2020 Valid 231300Z - 241200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Although severe storms are not expected, scattered thunderstorms are possible across portions of New England today and across parts of the Rockies and Plains today and tonight. ...New England... A shortwave trough/speed max over the Lower Great Lakes/Northeast States will continue steadily eastward today. A strong southerly low-level jet will continue to transport a modestly moist air mass quickly northward into near-coastal areas early today in advance of a cold front that will sweep eastward offshore this afternoon. Numerous/steady bands of showers precede the cold front, with embedded/scattered thunderstorms having become increasingly common in the predawn hours off the coast of New Jersey/New York into coastal southeast New England. 12Z observed soundings from OKX/New York City and CHH/Chatham MA both sampled semi-steep mid-level lapse rates and weak buoyancy atop a very shallow (less than 0.5 km AGL) stable boundary layer, with 235 J/kg MUCAPE (OKX) and 725 J/kg MUCAPE (CHH), respectively. 40-50 kt winds were noted within the lowest 1-2km AGL. A small spatiotemporal opportunity exists mainly across near-coastal southeast Massachusetts for some additional near-surface-rooted destabilization this morning. Convectively aided strong wind gusts cannot be entirely ruled out this morning, but the potential for severe-caliber wind gusts is expected to remain low given the probable persistence of boundary-layer stability over inland areas. ...Central/southern Rockies to Great Plains... Considerable height falls will occur today and especially tonight in association with a trough amplifying toward the Four Corners area, with the exit region of a strengthening mid/high-level jet reaching the south-central Plains tonight. Cooling mid-level profiles and steepening lapse rates suggest some lightning potential with the convection over the central/southern Rockies today into this evening, with isolated thunderstorms also a possibility into nearby parts of the Plains tonight. ..Guyer.. 11/23/2020
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