SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0700 AM CST Mon Nov 23 2020

Valid 231300Z - 241200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Although severe storms are not expected, scattered thunderstorms are
possible across portions of New England today and across parts of
the Rockies and Plains today and tonight.

...New England...
A shortwave trough/speed max over the Lower Great Lakes/Northeast
States will continue steadily eastward today. A strong southerly
low-level jet will continue to transport a modestly moist air mass
quickly northward into near-coastal areas early today in advance of
a cold front that will sweep eastward offshore this afternoon.
Numerous/steady bands of showers precede the cold front, with
embedded/scattered thunderstorms having become increasingly common
in the predawn hours off the coast of New Jersey/New York into
coastal southeast New England.

12Z observed soundings from OKX/New York City and CHH/Chatham MA
both sampled semi-steep mid-level lapse rates and weak buoyancy atop
a very shallow (less than 0.5 km AGL) stable boundary layer, with
235 J/kg MUCAPE (OKX) and 725 J/kg MUCAPE (CHH), respectively. 40-50
kt winds were noted within the lowest 1-2km AGL. A small
spatiotemporal opportunity exists mainly across near-coastal
southeast Massachusetts for some additional near-surface-rooted
destabilization this morning. Convectively aided strong wind gusts
cannot be entirely ruled out this morning, but the potential for
severe-caliber wind gusts is expected to remain low given the
probable persistence of boundary-layer stability over inland areas.

...Central/southern Rockies to Great Plains...
Considerable height falls will occur today and especially tonight in
association with a trough amplifying toward the Four Corners area,
with the exit region of a strengthening mid/high-level jet reaching
the south-central Plains tonight. Cooling mid-level profiles and
steepening lapse rates suggest some lightning potential with the
convection over the central/southern Rockies today into this
evening, with isolated thunderstorms also a possibility into nearby
parts of the Plains tonight.

..Guyer.. 11/23/2020

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