SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Outlook Image

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1004 AM CST Mon Nov 23 2020

Valid 231630Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MIDDAY
FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong/damaging winds may occur across extreme southeast
New England through midday.

...Southeast New England to coastal ME the next few hours...
One midlevel shortwave trough will move off the Mid-Atlantic coast
by midday and over ME by mid-late afternoon.  A band of slightly
elevated convection is moving across southeast MA and coastal ME in
advance of the midlevel trough and associated surface cyclone/cold
front.  Isolated strong/damaging winds will be possible with
near-surface-based convection approaching Nantucket through about
17z, while the threat for thunderstorms will end across coastal ME
by about mid afternoon.  

...Central Rockies this evening to the Plains overnight...
A midlevel trough over CA/NV will move eastward toward the Four
Corners by late tonight.  Steep midlevel lapse rates and modest
moistening near 700 mb will support a few thunderstorms over the
higher terrain of northern NM and western CO late this afternoon
into early tonight.  Very weak midlevel convection this morning over
northeast KS and southeast NE is unlikely to pose much threat for
lightning.  The threat for a few elevated thunderstorms will
increase overnight (06-12z) from the TX Panhandle into western
OK/southern KS as midlevel lapse rates steepen and moisture
increases in the 850-700 mb layer.

..Thompson.. 11/23/2020

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