SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1102 AM CST Mon Nov 23 2020 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible late afternoon Tuesday into Tuesday night across portions of the southern/central Plains, Ozarks, Mid-South, and lower Mississippi Valley. Large hail and severe gusts are the primary hazards. ...Synopsis... A potent mid-level shortwave trough --evident on water-vapor imagery Monday morning over the southern Sierra Nevada-- will move from the NM/AZ border on Tuesday morning, eastward to western MO by daybreak Wednesday. An associated 90-kt 500 mb speed max will move through the base of the trough and move into northwest TX/southern OK Tuesday evening and into the Ozarks late. At the surface, a low initially over the OK Panhandle will develop eastward into the lower MO Valley as a cold front sweeps southward through much of OK and northwest/north-central TX Tuesday night. ...OK eastward into the Ozarks... Strong southerly low-level flow during the day will advect 50s F dewpoints northward into western/central OK as a warm front advances northward into north-central OK by early evening. A dryline is forecast to sweep eastward across the TX Panhandle/South Plains during the afternoon. As strong large-scale ascent associated with the disturbance overspreads the southern High Plains, isolated thunderstorms are forecast to develop in the TX Panhandle into western OK during the 3-6pm period. As the storms move/develop into slightly richer low-level moisture near the OK border, the potential for large hail will probably increase as mid-level cooling aids in destabilization (-18 to -21 C at 500 mb). Strengthening and veering winds with height will favor storm organization, including the possibility for a few low-topped supercells initially, before upscale growth into a cluster or band of storms evolves during the evening. Large hail will probably accompany the stronger cores through early to mid evening before this threat lessens. Isolated to widely scattered severe gusts (60-70 mph) are possible as this activity moves east during the evening across OK. During the overnight, a lingering risk for isolated damaging winds may continue into the Ozarks and perhaps develop as far south as the Arklatex. A separate area of thunderstorms is forecast to develop across north-central TX overnight along the front. An isolated hail/wind risk may accompany these storms. ..Smith.. 11/23/2020
There’s more click here.