SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook

Day 2 Outlook Image

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1102 AM CST Mon Nov 23 2020

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z


Severe thunderstorms are possible late afternoon Tuesday into
Tuesday night across portions of the southern/central Plains,
Ozarks, Mid-South, and lower Mississippi Valley.  Large hail and
severe gusts are the primary hazards.

A potent mid-level shortwave trough --evident on water-vapor imagery
Monday morning over the southern Sierra Nevada-- will move from the
NM/AZ border on Tuesday morning, eastward to western MO by daybreak
Wednesday.  An associated 90-kt 500 mb speed max will move through
the base of the trough and move into northwest TX/southern OK
Tuesday evening and into the Ozarks late.  At the surface, a low
initially over the OK Panhandle will develop eastward into the lower
MO Valley as a cold front sweeps southward through much of OK and
northwest/north-central TX Tuesday night.  

...OK eastward into the Ozarks...
Strong southerly low-level flow during the day will advect 50s F
dewpoints northward into western/central OK as a warm front advances
northward into north-central OK by early evening.  A dryline is
forecast to sweep eastward across the TX Panhandle/South Plains
during the afternoon.  As strong large-scale ascent associated with
the disturbance overspreads the southern High Plains, isolated
thunderstorms are forecast to develop in the TX Panhandle into
western OK during the 3-6pm period.  As the storms move/develop into
slightly richer low-level moisture near the OK border, the potential
for large hail will probably increase as mid-level cooling aids in
destabilization (-18 to -21 C at 500 mb).  Strengthening and veering
winds with height will favor storm organization, including the
possibility for a few low-topped supercells initially, before
upscale growth into a cluster or band of storms evolves during the
evening.  Large hail will probably accompany the stronger cores
through early to mid evening before this threat lessens.  Isolated
to widely scattered severe gusts (60-70 mph) are possible as this
activity moves east during the evening across OK.  During the
overnight, a lingering risk for isolated damaging winds may continue
into the Ozarks and perhaps develop as far south as the Arklatex.  A
separate area of thunderstorms is forecast to develop across
north-central TX overnight along the front.  An isolated hail/wind
risk may accompany these storms.

..Smith.. 11/23/2020

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