SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Outlook Image

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0153 PM CST Mon Nov 23 2020

Valid 232000Z - 241200Z


Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight across the
contiguous United States.

The only changes made to the previous forecast are 1) remove the
5-percent wind probabilities near Cape Cod and 2) shift the
thunderstorm risk east off the New England coast except for far
eastern Maine.  Elsewhere, the forecast is on track.

..Smith.. 11/23/2020

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1004 AM CST Mon Nov 23 2020/

...Southeast New England to coastal ME the next few hours...
One midlevel shortwave trough will move off the Mid-Atlantic coast
by midday and over ME by mid-late afternoon.  A band of slightly
elevated convection is moving across southeast MA and coastal ME in
advance of the midlevel trough and associated surface cyclone/cold
front.  Isolated strong/damaging winds will be possible with
near-surface-based convection approaching Nantucket through about
17z, while the threat for thunderstorms will end across coastal ME
by about mid afternoon.  

...Central Rockies this evening to the Plains overnight...
A midlevel trough over CA/NV will move eastward toward the Four
Corners by late tonight.  Steep midlevel lapse rates and modest
moistening near 700 mb will support a few thunderstorms over the
higher terrain of northern NM and western CO late this afternoon
into early tonight.  Very weak midlevel convection this morning over
northeast KS and southeast NE is unlikely to pose much threat for
lightning.  The threat for a few elevated thunderstorms will
increase overnight (06-12z) from the TX Panhandle into western
OK/southern KS as midlevel lapse rates steepen and moisture
increases in the 850-700 mb layer.

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