SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 PM CST Mon Nov 23 2020 Valid 232000Z - 241200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight across the contiguous United States. ...Discussion... The only changes made to the previous forecast are 1) remove the 5-percent wind probabilities near Cape Cod and 2) shift the thunderstorm risk east off the New England coast except for far eastern Maine. Elsewhere, the forecast is on track. ..Smith.. 11/23/2020 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1004 AM CST Mon Nov 23 2020/ ...Southeast New England to coastal ME the next few hours... One midlevel shortwave trough will move off the Mid-Atlantic coast by midday and over ME by mid-late afternoon. A band of slightly elevated convection is moving across southeast MA and coastal ME in advance of the midlevel trough and associated surface cyclone/cold front. Isolated strong/damaging winds will be possible with near-surface-based convection approaching Nantucket through about 17z, while the threat for thunderstorms will end across coastal ME by about mid afternoon. ...Central Rockies this evening to the Plains overnight... A midlevel trough over CA/NV will move eastward toward the Four Corners by late tonight. Steep midlevel lapse rates and modest moistening near 700 mb will support a few thunderstorms over the higher terrain of northern NM and western CO late this afternoon into early tonight. Very weak midlevel convection this morning over northeast KS and southeast NE is unlikely to pose much threat for lightning. The threat for a few elevated thunderstorms will increase overnight (06-12z) from the TX Panhandle into western OK/southern KS as midlevel lapse rates steepen and moisture increases in the 850-700 mb layer.
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