Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0336 AM CST Mon Nov 23 2020 Valid 261200Z - 011200Z ...DISCUSSION... A positively tilted large-scale upper trough should develop eastward across the western/central states on Day 4/Thursday. In the wake of a prior frontal intrusion, low-level moisture may return northward across parts of TX and the lower MS Valley from Day 4/Thursday into Day 5/Friday. Depending on the evolution of this upper trough and whether it closes off over the Southwest, it appears possible that at least an isolated/marginal severe threat may develop across parts of the southern Plains, lower MS Valley, and Southeast, mainly from Day 5/Friday into the upcoming weekend. Regardless, too much uncertainty currently exists regarding the placement/amplitude of the upper trough/low and related surface features to include any 15% severe probabilities at this time.
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