Day 4-8 Outlook

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0336 AM CST Mon Nov 23 2020

Valid 261200Z - 011200Z

...DISCUSSION...
A positively tilted large-scale upper trough should develop eastward
across the western/central states on Day 4/Thursday. In the wake of
a prior frontal intrusion, low-level moisture may return northward
across parts of TX and the lower MS Valley from Day 4/Thursday into
Day 5/Friday. Depending on the evolution of this upper trough and
whether it closes off over the Southwest, it appears possible that
at least an isolated/marginal severe threat may develop across parts
of the southern Plains, lower MS Valley, and Southeast, mainly from
Day 5/Friday into the upcoming weekend. Regardless, too much
uncertainty currently exists regarding the placement/amplitude of
the upper trough/low and related surface features to include any 15%
severe probabilities at this time.

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