SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 AM CST Tue Nov 24 2020 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms appear unlikely across the contiguous United States on Thursday, but small hail may occur with thunderstorms across parts of east Texas into the ArkLaTex late Thursday night. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A de-amplifying shortwave trough should move across the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England on Thursday. A weak surface low associated with this feature is forecast to fill further through the day. An eastward-moving cold front should extend from the Mid-Atlantic southwestward along parts of the East Coast and into the Southeast. The stronger mid-level flow attendant to the shortwave trough should remain displaced to the north of greater low-level moisture across the Carolinas and Southeast. Although enough weak elevated instability may develop across the eastern part of the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England to support isolated thunderstorms, surface-based convection appears unlikely at this time. From the Carolinas into the Southeast, additional storms may occur through the day along/ahead of the cold front. These areas will remain generally to the south of stronger forcing for ascent related to the previously mentioned shortwave trough, with overall storm coverage expected to remain fairly low. As a positively tilted upper trough moves southeastward over the western/central CONUS, low-level moisture return should occur across parts of coastal/east TX and the ArkLaTex region late Thursday into early Friday morning. Modestly steepened mid-level lapse rates emanating from the higher terrain of west TX and northern Mexico may overspread this region late in the period. Weak to perhaps moderate MUCAPE should develop along/north of a front, with sufficient mid-level west-southwesterly flow to support some deep-layer shear. At this point, small hail appears possible with any storms that can form in a weak low-level warm advection regime. However, confidence in an isolated large hail threat from elevated storms remains low owing to nebulous large-scale forcing with the upper trough remaining well to the west, and differences in model guidance regarding both the placement and overall coverage of storms. ..Gleason.. 11/24/2020
There’s more click here.