SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook

Day 3 Outlook Image

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0224 AM CST Tue Nov 24 2020

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms appear unlikely across the contiguous
United States on Thursday, but small hail may occur with
thunderstorms across parts of east Texas into the ArkLaTex late
Thursday night.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
A de-amplifying shortwave trough should move across the Mid-Atlantic
and southern New England on Thursday. A weak surface low associated
with this feature is forecast to fill further through the day. An
eastward-moving cold front should extend from the Mid-Atlantic
southwestward along parts of the East Coast and into the Southeast.
The stronger mid-level flow attendant to the shortwave trough should
remain displaced to the north of greater low-level moisture across
the Carolinas and Southeast. Although enough weak elevated
instability may develop across the eastern part of the Mid-Atlantic
and southern New England to support isolated thunderstorms,
surface-based convection appears unlikely at this time. From the
Carolinas into the Southeast, additional storms may occur through
the day along/ahead of the cold front. These areas will remain
generally to the south of stronger forcing for ascent related to the
previously mentioned shortwave trough, with overall storm coverage
expected to remain fairly low.

As a positively tilted upper trough moves southeastward over the
western/central CONUS, low-level moisture return should occur across
parts of coastal/east TX and the ArkLaTex region late Thursday into
early Friday morning. Modestly steepened mid-level lapse rates
emanating from the higher terrain of west TX and northern Mexico may
overspread this region late in the period. Weak to perhaps moderate
MUCAPE should develop along/north of a front, with sufficient
mid-level west-southwesterly flow to support some deep-layer shear.
At this point, small hail appears possible with any storms that can
form in a weak low-level warm advection regime. However, confidence
in an isolated large hail threat from elevated storms remains low
owing to nebulous large-scale forcing with the upper trough
remaining well to the west, and differences in model guidance
regarding both the placement and overall coverage of storms.

..Gleason.. 11/24/2020

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