SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0702 AM CST Tue Nov 24 2020 Valid 241300Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INCLUDING OKLAHOMA...TEXAS PANHANDLE...AND FAR SOUTHERN KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from mid/late afternoon into tonight across portions of northern Texas, Oklahoma, and southern Kansas to the Ozarks, Mid-South, and Ark-La-Tex regions. Large hail and severe wind gusts are the primary hazards. ...Central/Southern Plains to Ozarks... A shortwave trough centered over the Four Corners area early this morning will eject east-northeastward today and reach the Ozarks tonight, with a 90+ kt polar jet overspreading Oklahoma/northern Texas toward the Ozarks as the system takes on an increasingly negative tilt. Surface cyclogenesis will initially occur across the south-central High Plains today, with middle/upper 50s F surface dewpoints developing northward into far eastern Texas Panhandle and western Oklahoma by late afternoon. As intense height falls/forcing for ascent arrive into the region, initial near-surface-based storm development/intensification should occur within the immediate post-surface-frontal regime across the Oklahoma/northern Texas Panhandles by around mid-afternoon, with this convection developing east-northeastward and intensifying toward the triple point vicinity into northwest Oklahoma through early evening. Despite modest boundary layer moisture, relatively cool mid-level thermal profiles and steep lapse rates will support adequate instability for severe-caliber storms in the presence of very strong vertical shear. A few initial supercells capable of large hail are expected, along with some tornado risk particularly across northwest/west-central Oklahoma. Upscale growth into bands should otherwise occur during the evening with an increasing potential for damaging winds as storms race east-northeastward across northern Oklahoma and far southern Kansas. ...ArkLaTex/Mid-South/Lower Mississippi Valley... Farther south-southeast, a somewhat separate corridor of at least isolated severe thunderstorm development could occur across northeast Texas, southern Arkansas, and northern Louisiana roughly from mid-evening into the overnight. As the warm front moves north-northeastward across the region tonight, guidance such as the NAM/RAP suggest a weakening trend of convective inhibition nocturnally in conjunction with an increasing prevalence of low/mid 60s F surface dewpoints. While uncertainties remain regarding the magnitude of the severe risk across this region, a late-night through early morning damaging wind/tornado risk cannot be discounted. Observational/short-term guidance trends will be reevaluated today for a possible categorical Slight Risk upgrade/regional expansion. ..Guyer/Broyles.. 11/24/2020
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