Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 AM CST Tue Nov 24 2020 Valid 271200Z - 021200Z ...DISCUSSION... The evolution of a positively tilted upper trough across the western/central CONUS remains uncertain from Day 4/Friday into the upcoming weekend. Some medium-range guidance indicates that the southern portion of the upper trough will close off over the Four Corners vicinity on Day 4/Friday, and then move slowly eastward across the southern Plains and lower MS Valley through the weekend. Other guidance suggests that the upper trough will not close off, and will instead progress eastward more rapidly. Regardless of which scenario occurs, some severe threat may exist across parts of central and coastal TX on Day 4/Friday, the lower MS Valley/Southeast on Day 5/Saturday and Day 6/Sunday, and perhaps a portion of the East Coast on Day 7/Monday. However, far too much uncertainty exists in the synoptic-scale pattern over the central/eastern CONUS to include 15% severe probabilities at this time.
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