Day 4-8 Outlook

Day 4-8 Outlook Image

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0352 AM CST Tue Nov 24 2020

Valid 271200Z - 021200Z

...DISCUSSION...
The evolution of a positively tilted upper trough across the
western/central CONUS remains uncertain from Day 4/Friday into the
upcoming weekend. Some medium-range guidance indicates that the
southern portion of the upper trough will close off over the Four
Corners vicinity on Day 4/Friday, and then move slowly eastward
across the southern Plains and lower MS Valley through the weekend.
Other guidance suggests that the upper trough will not close off,
and will instead progress eastward more rapidly. Regardless of which
scenario occurs, some severe threat may exist across parts of
central and coastal TX on Day 4/Friday, the lower MS
Valley/Southeast on Day 5/Saturday and Day 6/Sunday, and perhaps a
portion of the East Coast on Day 7/Monday. However, far too much
uncertainty exists in the synoptic-scale pattern over the
central/eastern CONUS to include 15% severe probabilities at this
time.

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