SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0635 PM CST Tue Nov 24 2020 Valid 250100Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe threat continues tonight from eastern Oklahoma into the lower Mississippi Valley region. Damaging winds will become the primary threat over the next few hours. ...01z Update... Strong large-scale forcing for ascent is spreading across OK/KS within exit region of 90kt 500mb speed max. This feature will encourage LLJ to translate downstream and focus into the Ozark Plateau region later tonight. Convection that developed in response to this forcing over the TX Panhandle has progressed into the I-35 corridor with the strongest updrafts, represented by lightning flash rates, noted from south-central KS into south-central OK. While OUN 00z sounding appeared to have sampled a representative pre-squall line air mass, surface-based buoyancy was notably absent when this data was sampled. However, FWD exhibited ~1100 J/kg SBCAPE with surface temperatures in the lower-mid 70s. Ample shear extends into north TX ahead of the strong short wave and there is some concern that organized convection may ultimately evolve along/ahead of the surface front. However, stronger forcing will remain north of this region and the lack of more widespread reports with the OK activity does not lend confidence in upgrading severe probabilities south of the Red River. Even so, some risk remains and damaging winds would likely be the main severe threat, although a tornado can not be ruled out with any supercells. ..Darrow.. 11/25/2020
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