SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Outlook Image

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0635 PM CST Tue Nov 24 2020

Valid 250100Z - 251200Z


Severe threat continues tonight from eastern Oklahoma into the lower
Mississippi Valley region. Damaging winds will become the primary
threat over the next few hours.

...01z Update...

Strong large-scale forcing for ascent is spreading across OK/KS
within exit region of 90kt 500mb speed max. This feature will
encourage LLJ to translate downstream and focus into the Ozark
Plateau region later tonight. Convection that developed in response
to this forcing over the TX Panhandle has progressed into the I-35
corridor with the strongest updrafts, represented by lightning flash
rates, noted from south-central KS into south-central OK. While OUN
00z sounding appeared to have sampled a representative pre-squall
line air mass, surface-based buoyancy was notably absent when this
data was sampled. However, FWD exhibited ~1100 J/kg SBCAPE with
surface temperatures in the lower-mid 70s. Ample shear extends into
north TX ahead of the strong short wave and there is some concern
that organized convection may ultimately evolve along/ahead of the
surface front. However, stronger forcing will remain north of this
region and the lack of more widespread reports with the OK activity
does not lend confidence in upgrading severe probabilities south of
the Red River. Even so, some risk remains and damaging winds would
likely be the main severe threat, although a tornado can not be
ruled out with any supercells.

..Darrow.. 11/25/2020

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