SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CST Wed Nov 25 2020 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL/COASTAL TEXAS INTO LOUISIANA AND SOUTHWESTERN MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur Friday across parts of central/coastal Texas, Louisiana, and southwestern Mississippi. ...Coastal Texas into Louisiana and Southwestern Mississippi... Mainly elevated thunderstorms may be ongoing to the north of a warm front at the beginning of the period across parts of east TX and LA. This activity should be supported by modest low-level warm advection, which is forecast to weaken through Friday morning. Still, given the forecast combination of adequate instability/mid-level lapse rates with strong deep-layer shear, this convection may continue to pose an isolated hail threat mainly through the morning hours across LA and perhaps southwestern MS before diminishing. As a closed upper low slowly pivots across the Southwest through the period, a belt of enhanced west-southwesterly mid-level winds will remain over much of central/coastal TX into parts of the lower MS Valley. A east-west oriented surface boundary should be located over these areas, with rich low-level moisture to its south. It appears that this boundary will serve a focus for potentially robust convection through the day, possibly beginning by early afternoon across central TX as small-scale mid-level perturbations embedded in the westerly flow aloft overspread this region. Weak to potentially moderate instability along/near the front coupled with strong deep-layer shear should support some organized convection. Isolated large hail and strong to locally damaging wind gusts should be the main threats as storms move slowly south-southeastward in tandem with the surface front through Friday evening. ..Gleason.. 11/25/2020
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