SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0228 AM CST Wed Nov 25 2020

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
CENTRAL/COASTAL TEXAS INTO LOUISIANA AND SOUTHWESTERN MISSISSIPPI...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur Friday across
parts of central/coastal Texas, Louisiana, and southwestern
Mississippi.

...Coastal Texas into Louisiana and Southwestern Mississippi...
Mainly elevated thunderstorms may be ongoing to the north of a warm
front at the beginning of the period across parts of east TX and LA.
This activity should be supported by modest low-level warm
advection, which is forecast to weaken through Friday morning.
Still, given the forecast combination of adequate
instability/mid-level lapse rates with strong deep-layer shear, this
convection may continue to pose an isolated hail threat mainly
through the morning hours across LA and perhaps southwestern MS
before diminishing.

As a closed upper low slowly pivots across the Southwest through the
period, a belt of enhanced west-southwesterly mid-level winds will
remain over much of central/coastal TX into parts of the lower MS
Valley. A east-west oriented surface boundary should be located over
these areas, with rich low-level moisture to its south. It appears
that this boundary will serve a focus for potentially robust
convection through the day, possibly beginning by early afternoon
across central TX as small-scale mid-level perturbations embedded in
the westerly flow aloft overspread this region. Weak to potentially
moderate instability along/near the front coupled with strong
deep-layer shear should support some organized convection. Isolated
large hail and strong to locally damaging wind gusts should be the
main threats as storms move slowly south-southeastward in tandem
with the surface front through Friday evening.

..Gleason.. 11/25/2020

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