Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 AM CST Wed Nov 25 2020 Valid 281200Z - 031200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance has come into better agreement regarding the eastward advance of an upper low over the southern Plains on Day 4/Saturday. Any severe potential Saturday appears to be confined along/south of a surface boundary which should be located across parts of coastal/south TX and perhaps southern LA. Some phasing of this upper low with a northern-stream upper trough over the Midwest seems probable on Day 5/Sunday. A northward advance of a partially modified Gulf airmass may occur over parts of the Southeast Sunday, with an associated isolated/marginal severe risk. Differences in the evolution of a highly amplified upper trough/low over the eastern states become apparent in medium-range guidance by Day 6/Monday. Regardless, a continued isolated/marginal severe threat may exist Monday across the warm sector of a deepening surface cyclone from parts of FL and the Southeast along the East Coast and potentially extending into the Mid-Atlantic. For Day 4/Saturday through Day 6/Monday, too much uncertainty currently exists regarding inland destabilization to include 15% severe probabilities for any day.
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