Day 4-8 Outlook

Day 4-8 Outlook Image

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0354 AM CST Wed Nov 25 2020

Valid 281200Z - 031200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Medium-range guidance has come into better agreement regarding the
eastward advance of an upper low over the southern Plains on Day
4/Saturday. Any severe potential Saturday appears to be confined
along/south of a surface boundary which should be located across
parts of coastal/south TX and perhaps southern LA. Some phasing of
this upper low with a northern-stream upper trough over the Midwest
seems probable on Day 5/Sunday. A northward advance of a partially
modified Gulf airmass may occur over parts of the Southeast Sunday,
with an associated isolated/marginal severe risk. Differences in the
evolution of a highly amplified upper trough/low over the eastern
states become apparent in medium-range guidance by Day 6/Monday.
Regardless, a continued isolated/marginal severe threat may exist
Monday across the warm sector of a deepening surface cyclone from
parts of FL and the Southeast along the East Coast and potentially
extending into the Mid-Atlantic. For Day 4/Saturday through Day
6/Monday, too much uncertainty currently exists regarding inland
destabilization to include 15% severe probabilities for any day.

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