SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0659 PM CST Wed Nov 25 2020 Valid 260100Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A PORTION OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... A marginal risk for a strong wind gust or two exists over a small portion of the Ohio Valley early this evening and a small part of the Southeast States later during the evening. ...Ohio Valley... A strongly forced band of low-topped convection with very little lightning activity persists across western OH into northern KY. Activity is embedded within strong wind profiles with 50 kt observed just below 1 km on VWP data. A strong wind gust or two cannot be ruled out in association with this activity through about 03Z, but the thermodynamic environment is very marginal with MLCAPE near or less than 200 J/kg. Further weakening is expected toward mid evening as activity continues east toward more limited instability. ...Southeast States... Models continue to indicate that another round of thunderstorms will develop later this evening from central through northeast AL into northwest GA along and just ahead of a cold front as a weak impulse rotates through the base of the OH Valley shortwave trough. The thermodynamic environment in this region will remain very marginal as depicted by the 00Z RAOB from Birmingham. Through 0-2 km winds will tend to slowly veer and weaken as the primary low-level jet develops northward toward the OH Valley, vertical shear profiles will remain strong. Although it is likely that developing storms will be at least slightly elevated above a stable surface layer, a strong wind gust or two cannot be ruled out. ..Dial.. 11/26/2020
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