SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 AM CST Thu Nov 26 2020 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL/EAST TEXAS...LOUISIANA...AND SOUTHWESTERN MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur Friday across parts of central/east Texas, Louisiana, and southwestern Mississippi. Large hail and strong to damaging winds should be the main threats. ...Texas into the Lower Mississippi Valley... Mainly elevated thunderstorms will probably be ongoing to the north of a warm front at the beginning of the period across parts of east TX and LA. This activity will be supported by modest low-level warm advection, which is forecast to weaken through Friday morning. Still, given the forecast combination of MUCAPE around 500-1250 J/kg and 35-45 kt of deep-layer shear, this convection may continue to pose an isolated large hail threat across parts of LA and perhaps southwestern MS through the morning hours before diminishing. As a closed upper low slowly pivots across the Southwest and towards the southern High Plains through the period, a belt of enhanced west-southwesterly mid-level winds will remain over much of central/east TX into parts of the lower MS Valley. A generally southwest-northeast oriented surface boundary should be located over these areas, with rich low-level moisture characterized by upper 60s to perhaps low 70s surface dewpoints to its south. It appears that this boundary will serve a focus for potentially robust convection through the day, possibly beginning by early afternoon across central TX as an upper jet overspreads this region. Up to 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE may develop along/south the front. Coupled with strong deep-layer shear, this should support some organized convection. Isolated large hail and strong to locally damaging wind gusts appear to be the main threats as storms move slowly east-southeastward into coastal TX/LA in tandem with the surface front through Friday evening. ..Gleason.. 11/26/2020
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