SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1200 AM CST Thu Nov 26 2020

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
CENTRAL/EAST TEXAS...LOUISIANA...AND SOUTHWESTERN MISSISSIPPI...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur Friday across
parts of central/east Texas, Louisiana, and southwestern
Mississippi. Large hail and strong to damaging winds should be the
main threats.

...Texas into the Lower Mississippi Valley...
Mainly elevated thunderstorms will probably be ongoing to the north
of a warm front at the beginning of the period across parts of east
TX and LA. This activity will be supported by modest low-level warm
advection, which is forecast to weaken through Friday morning.
Still, given the forecast combination of MUCAPE around 500-1250 J/kg
and 35-45 kt of deep-layer shear, this convection may continue to
pose an isolated large hail threat across parts of LA and perhaps
southwestern MS through the morning hours before diminishing.

As a closed upper low slowly pivots across the Southwest and towards
the southern High Plains through the period, a belt of enhanced
west-southwesterly mid-level winds will remain over much of
central/east TX into parts of the lower MS Valley. A generally
southwest-northeast oriented surface boundary should be located over
these areas, with rich low-level moisture characterized by upper 60s
to perhaps low 70s surface dewpoints to its south. It appears that
this boundary will serve a focus for potentially robust convection
through the day, possibly beginning by early afternoon across
central TX as an upper jet overspreads this region. Up to 1000-1500
J/kg of MLCAPE may develop along/south the front. Coupled with
strong deep-layer shear, this should support some organized
convection. Isolated large hail and strong to locally damaging wind
gusts appear to be the main threats as storms move slowly
east-southeastward into coastal TX/LA in tandem with the surface
front through Friday evening.

..Gleason.. 11/26/2020

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