SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Outlook Image

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0659 AM CST Thu Nov 26 2020

Valid 261300Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST STATES TODAY AND EASTERN TEXAS AND LOUISIANA TONIGHT...

...SUMMARY...
A few strong to locally severe thunderstorms could occur today
across the Southeast States including southeast Alabama and southern
Georgia. Isolated severe hail may occur with thunderstorms that
develop across parts of far eastern Texas into Louisiana late
tonight.

...Southeast States...
Bands of storms, including some embedded/weak transient supercells
overnight, continue to persist across southern Alabama and central
Georgia early this morning near/ahead of an
east/southeastward-moving cold front. While convergence will tend to
weaken during the day, modest diurnal destabilization and some
additional pre-frontal moistening from the south-southwest may help
sustain storms today from southeast Alabama into central/southern
Georgia and possibly parts of the Florida Panhandle. Deep-layer
shear will be sufficiently strong (35-40 kt effective) for some
well-organized storms and possibly a few weak/transient supercells,
although low-level winds within the lowest 1-2 km AGL will continue
to weaken today. While an overly organized severe risk is not
expected, a few stronger/locally severe storms capable of wind
damage could occur through the afternoon.

...Far east/southeast Texas and Louisiana late tonight...
As an initial response to the amplifying trough approaching the
southern Rockies late tonight, increasing elevated moisture
transport is expected late tonight near/north of a near-coastal warm
front and ahead of a cold front advancing southeastward across the
southern Plains. Somewhat steeper mid-level lapse rates will
overspread this nocturnal increase in low-level moisture, with the
possibility of 1000 J/kg MUCAPE in some locations by late tonight.
In the presence of long straight hodographs, these elevated
late-night storms could pose a marginally severe hail risk on an
isolated basis.

..Guyer/Broyles.. 11/26/2020

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