SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0659 AM CST Thu Nov 26 2020 Valid 261300Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES TODAY AND EASTERN TEXAS AND LOUISIANA TONIGHT... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to locally severe thunderstorms could occur today across the Southeast States including southeast Alabama and southern Georgia. Isolated severe hail may occur with thunderstorms that develop across parts of far eastern Texas into Louisiana late tonight. ...Southeast States... Bands of storms, including some embedded/weak transient supercells overnight, continue to persist across southern Alabama and central Georgia early this morning near/ahead of an east/southeastward-moving cold front. While convergence will tend to weaken during the day, modest diurnal destabilization and some additional pre-frontal moistening from the south-southwest may help sustain storms today from southeast Alabama into central/southern Georgia and possibly parts of the Florida Panhandle. Deep-layer shear will be sufficiently strong (35-40 kt effective) for some well-organized storms and possibly a few weak/transient supercells, although low-level winds within the lowest 1-2 km AGL will continue to weaken today. While an overly organized severe risk is not expected, a few stronger/locally severe storms capable of wind damage could occur through the afternoon. ...Far east/southeast Texas and Louisiana late tonight... As an initial response to the amplifying trough approaching the southern Rockies late tonight, increasing elevated moisture transport is expected late tonight near/north of a near-coastal warm front and ahead of a cold front advancing southeastward across the southern Plains. Somewhat steeper mid-level lapse rates will overspread this nocturnal increase in low-level moisture, with the possibility of 1000 J/kg MUCAPE in some locations by late tonight. In the presence of long straight hodographs, these elevated late-night storms could pose a marginally severe hail risk on an isolated basis. ..Guyer/Broyles.. 11/26/2020
There’s more click here.