SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1028 AM CST Thu Nov 26 2020

Valid 261630Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
FROM SOUTHEAST AL INTO SOUTHWEST GA...AND MAINLY TONIGHT FOR THE
NORTHWEST GULF COAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated damaging winds will be possible this afternoon from
southeast Alabama into southwestern Georgia.  Isolated large hail
will be possible, mainly overnight, near the northwest Gulf coast.

...Southeast AL/southwest GA this afternoon...
Occasional weak supercell structures will remain possible within a
band of convection drifting southeastward along a surface cold
front.  Ascent along the front will be aided by weak embedded speed
maxima aloft moving over the lower MS/TN Valley regions, in concert
with the diurnal heating cycle.  However, low-level shear will be
weak and deep-layer shear will be on the lower margins for
supercells, in an environment with MLCAPE near 1000 J/kg.  Thus, any
severe threat should be confined to isolated wind damage this
afternoon, prior to the storms weakening this evening.

...Southwest LA coast this afternoon into southeast TX overnight...
Low-level moisture is beginning to return northward toward the
northwest Gulf coast, and a few thunderstorms are ongoing across the
northwest Gulf along the warm front/buoyancy gradient.  Moisture
will spread inland this afternoon into tonight in a weak warm
advection regime, with the potential additional influence of a
subtle speed max aloft moving east-northeastward from northwest
Mexico.  A few thunderstorms will develop inland over southwest LA
this afternoon, with more substantial storm development expected
farther west and north in southeast TX after 06z tonight.  Low-level
shear will not be particularly strong, but effective bulk shear of
40-50 kt, midlevel lapse rates of 7-8 C/km, and MUCAPE near 1500
J/kg could support isolated hail near 1" with slightly elevated
convection.

..Thompson.. 11/26/2020

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