SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1028 AM CST Thu Nov 26 2020 Valid 261630Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON FROM SOUTHEAST AL INTO SOUTHWEST GA...AND MAINLY TONIGHT FOR THE NORTHWEST GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated damaging winds will be possible this afternoon from southeast Alabama into southwestern Georgia. Isolated large hail will be possible, mainly overnight, near the northwest Gulf coast. ...Southeast AL/southwest GA this afternoon... Occasional weak supercell structures will remain possible within a band of convection drifting southeastward along a surface cold front. Ascent along the front will be aided by weak embedded speed maxima aloft moving over the lower MS/TN Valley regions, in concert with the diurnal heating cycle. However, low-level shear will be weak and deep-layer shear will be on the lower margins for supercells, in an environment with MLCAPE near 1000 J/kg. Thus, any severe threat should be confined to isolated wind damage this afternoon, prior to the storms weakening this evening. ...Southwest LA coast this afternoon into southeast TX overnight... Low-level moisture is beginning to return northward toward the northwest Gulf coast, and a few thunderstorms are ongoing across the northwest Gulf along the warm front/buoyancy gradient. Moisture will spread inland this afternoon into tonight in a weak warm advection regime, with the potential additional influence of a subtle speed max aloft moving east-northeastward from northwest Mexico. A few thunderstorms will develop inland over southwest LA this afternoon, with more substantial storm development expected farther west and north in southeast TX after 06z tonight. Low-level shear will not be particularly strong, but effective bulk shear of 40-50 kt, midlevel lapse rates of 7-8 C/km, and MUCAPE near 1500 J/kg could support isolated hail near 1" with slightly elevated convection. ..Thompson.. 11/26/2020
There’s more click here.