SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0648 PM CST Thu Nov 26 2020

Valid 270100Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
EAST TEXAS AND ACROSS SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated marginal hail will be possible overnight, from parts of
east Texas across southern Louisiana and vicinity.

...Discussion...
A small cluster of storms is ongoing near the eastern
Louisiana/southern Mississippi border at this time, with a couple of
stronger updrafts evident.  The storms appear to be slightly
elevated, per the 00Z Slidell RAOB, and are occurring in an
environment featuring modest amounts of both CAPE and shear.  While
one or two of the strongest cells could pose a very brief risk for
severe weather, mainly in the form of hail, the risk will remain
low-end/limited.

Meanwhile, quasi-geostrophic forcing for ascent -- aided by a weak
disturbance over northern Mexico moving east-northeastward toward
Texas -- is expected to increase late tonight over east Texas and
into Louisiana.  With modest elevated CAPE residing across this
region, scattered to isolated convective development remains
possible.

Though not particularly strong (around 35 kt), cloud-layer shear may
be sufficient to permit a few stronger/sustained updrafts, possibly
including weak rotation.  Marginally severe hail cannot be ruled out
with one or two of the strongest cells, though CAPE/shear
combination remains marginal with respect to a more substantial
severe risk (i.e. in excess of the MRGL category).

..Goss.. 11/27/2020

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