SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0648 PM CST Thu Nov 26 2020 Valid 270100Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EAST TEXAS AND ACROSS SOUTHERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated marginal hail will be possible overnight, from parts of east Texas across southern Louisiana and vicinity. ...Discussion... A small cluster of storms is ongoing near the eastern Louisiana/southern Mississippi border at this time, with a couple of stronger updrafts evident. The storms appear to be slightly elevated, per the 00Z Slidell RAOB, and are occurring in an environment featuring modest amounts of both CAPE and shear. While one or two of the strongest cells could pose a very brief risk for severe weather, mainly in the form of hail, the risk will remain low-end/limited. Meanwhile, quasi-geostrophic forcing for ascent -- aided by a weak disturbance over northern Mexico moving east-northeastward toward Texas -- is expected to increase late tonight over east Texas and into Louisiana. With modest elevated CAPE residing across this region, scattered to isolated convective development remains possible. Though not particularly strong (around 35 kt), cloud-layer shear may be sufficient to permit a few stronger/sustained updrafts, possibly including weak rotation. Marginally severe hail cannot be ruled out with one or two of the strongest cells, though CAPE/shear combination remains marginal with respect to a more substantial severe risk (i.e. in excess of the MRGL category). ..Goss.. 11/27/2020
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