SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1020 AM CST Fri Nov 27 2020 Valid 271630Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION... ...SUMMARY... Isolated, marginally severe thunderstorms are possible from South Texas to southern Mississippi today. ...Western and Central Gulf Coast... Morning water vapor loop shows a compact upper low over AZ moving toward the southern Plains. Relatively fast west-southwesterly flow aloft extends from northern Mexico into parts of TX/LA/MS/AL where low-level warm/moist advection is resulting in scattered showers and thunderstorms. This activity is forecast to continue through much of the day as a weak surface cold front sags southward across the region. Forecast soundings show MUCAPE values around 1000 J/kg from southern AL into LA, with higher values farther southwest in TX. This, combined with sufficient deep-layer shear may result in transient rotating/bowing structures and an associated risk of gusty winds or a brief spinup. However, low-level flow is weak and lapse rates are not particularly steep. Therefore, the overall severe threat remains marginal. ..Hart/Kerr.. 11/27/2020
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