SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1020 AM CST Fri Nov 27 2020

Valid 271630Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated, marginally severe thunderstorms are possible from South
Texas to southern Mississippi today.

...Western and Central Gulf Coast...
Morning water vapor loop shows a compact upper low over AZ moving
toward the southern Plains.  Relatively fast west-southwesterly flow
aloft extends from northern Mexico into parts of TX/LA/MS/AL where
low-level warm/moist advection is resulting in scattered showers and
thunderstorms. This activity is forecast to continue through much of
the day as a weak surface cold front sags southward across the
region.  Forecast soundings show MUCAPE values around 1000 J/kg from
southern AL into LA, with higher values farther southwest in TX. 
This, combined with sufficient deep-layer shear may result in
transient rotating/bowing structures and an associated risk of gusty
winds or a brief spinup.  However, low-level flow is weak and lapse
rates are not particularly steep.  Therefore, the overall severe
threat remains marginal.

..Hart/Kerr.. 11/27/2020

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