SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0149 PM CST Fri Nov 27 2020

Valid 272000Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated, marginally severe thunderstorms are possible from South
Texas to southern Mississippi today.

...20z Update - Western and Central Gulf Coast...

The only changes to the ongoing Marginal risk area have been to
remove northern portions of the area from TX into LA/MS based on the
current position of the surface front. Otherwise, the ongoing
forecast remains on track. Refer to MCD 1817 and the previous
outlook below for more details.

..Leitman.. 11/27/2020

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1020 AM CST Fri Nov 27 2020/

...Western and Central Gulf Coast...
Morning water vapor loop shows a compact upper low over AZ moving
toward the southern Plains.  Relatively fast west-southwesterly flow
aloft extends from northern Mexico into parts of TX/LA/MS/AL where
low-level warm/moist advection is resulting in scattered showers and
thunderstorms. This activity is forecast to continue through much of
the day as a weak surface cold front sags southward across the
region.  Forecast soundings show MUCAPE values around 1000 J/kg from
southern AL into LA, with higher values farther southwest in TX. 
This, combined with sufficient deep-layer shear may result in
transient rotating/bowing structures and an associated risk of gusty
winds or a brief spinup.  However, low-level flow is weak and lapse
rates are not particularly steep.  Therefore, the overall severe
threat remains marginal.

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