Day 4-8 Outlook

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0345 AM CST Fri Nov 27 2020

Valid 301200Z - 051200Z

...DISCUSSION...
A continued isolated/marginal severe threat may continue across
mainly eastern parts of the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic as a
large-scale upper trough/low moves slowly across the eastern CONUS
on Day 4/Monday. Strong low/mid-level flow is forecast to be present
over these regions ahead of a cold front, but instability should
remain weak across the warm sector owing to fairly limited low-level
moisture. Confidence in a more substantial severe threat on Day
4/Monday remains too low to include 15% severe probabilities at this
time. Minimal potential for organized severe thunderstorms is
anticipated across the CONUS for Day 5/Tuesday and Day 6/Wednesday,
as offshore low-level trajectories should be maintained over much of
the Gulf of Mexico and western Atlantic. Predictability of the
synoptic-scale pattern in medium-range guidance appears low by late
next week, with any low-end severe potential remaining confined to
parts of the central/eastern Gulf Coast vicinity and possibly FL.

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