Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0345 AM CST Fri Nov 27 2020 Valid 301200Z - 051200Z ...DISCUSSION... A continued isolated/marginal severe threat may continue across mainly eastern parts of the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic as a large-scale upper trough/low moves slowly across the eastern CONUS on Day 4/Monday. Strong low/mid-level flow is forecast to be present over these regions ahead of a cold front, but instability should remain weak across the warm sector owing to fairly limited low-level moisture. Confidence in a more substantial severe threat on Day 4/Monday remains too low to include 15% severe probabilities at this time. Minimal potential for organized severe thunderstorms is anticipated across the CONUS for Day 5/Tuesday and Day 6/Wednesday, as offshore low-level trajectories should be maintained over much of the Gulf of Mexico and western Atlantic. Predictability of the synoptic-scale pattern in medium-range guidance appears low by late next week, with any low-end severe potential remaining confined to parts of the central/eastern Gulf Coast vicinity and possibly FL.
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