SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0651 PM CST Fri Nov 27 2020

Valid 280100Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTH TEXAS
TO COASTAL MISSISSIPPI...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated, marginally severe thunderstorms are possible from South
Texas to coastal Mississippi tonight.

...Discussion...
As the main/leading band of convection sags gradually southward
toward/off the Gulf Coast, marginal risk for severe storms is
likewise shrinking from north to south.  At this point, only areas
of southeastern Louisiana and coastal Mississippi maintain
sufficient CAPE/shear combination to support a stronger updraft or
two this evening.

Farther west, over portions of central and southern Texas and the
middle and upper Coastal Plain, scattered storms are ongoing.  Model
data (primarily HRRR members) continues to suggest that an overnight
increase in storm coverage -- owing to a weak increase in
quasi-geostrophic forcing for ascent -- may yet occur.  Given ample
elevated CAPE (per steep mid-level lapse rates evident on this
evening's DRT RAOB), and strong mid-level southwesterlies, a few
stronger storms may evolve with time.  Primary severe risk would
likely be hail, though a locally strong wind gust cannot be ruled
out.

..Goss.. 11/28/2020

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