SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0651 PM CST Fri Nov 27 2020 Valid 280100Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTH TEXAS TO COASTAL MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... Isolated, marginally severe thunderstorms are possible from South Texas to coastal Mississippi tonight. ...Discussion... As the main/leading band of convection sags gradually southward toward/off the Gulf Coast, marginal risk for severe storms is likewise shrinking from north to south. At this point, only areas of southeastern Louisiana and coastal Mississippi maintain sufficient CAPE/shear combination to support a stronger updraft or two this evening. Farther west, over portions of central and southern Texas and the middle and upper Coastal Plain, scattered storms are ongoing. Model data (primarily HRRR members) continues to suggest that an overnight increase in storm coverage -- owing to a weak increase in quasi-geostrophic forcing for ascent -- may yet occur. Given ample elevated CAPE (per steep mid-level lapse rates evident on this evening's DRT RAOB), and strong mid-level southwesterlies, a few stronger storms may evolve with time. Primary severe risk would likely be hail, though a locally strong wind gust cannot be ruled out. ..Goss.. 11/28/2020
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