SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0226 AM CST Sat Nov 28 2020

Valid 301200Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
FLORIDA/COASTAL GEORGIA INTO THE CAROLINAS AND MID-ATLANTIC...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms capable of producing
damaging winds and perhaps a couple of tornadoes appear possible on
Monday from parts of Florida and coastal Georgia into the Carolinas
and Mid-Atlantic.

...Florida/Coastal Georgia into the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic...
A large-scale upper trough should evolve into a closed low over the
Midwest/OH Valley and central Appalachians on Monday. A mid-level
vorticity maximum embedded within this upper trough is forecast to
move quickly northeastward from the central Appalachians into the
Mid-Atlantic through Monday afternoon. A deep surface low should
likewise develop northeastward in tandem with this vorticity
maximum. A cold front trailing from this surface low will likely
sweep eastward across much of the FL Peninsula and the East Coast
through the day. A warm front extending northeastward from the
surface low will probably make some northward progress across parts
of the Mid-Atlantic through Monday afternoon as well.

A line of low-topped showers/storms along or just ahead of the cold
front should be ongoing at the start of the period from near the
surface low in WV/western VA southward to northern FL. Although
instability may remain modest across most of the warm sector ahead
of this line, generally low to mid 60s surface dewpoints should be
enough to support weak surface-based instability through the day. A
very strong (50-60+ kt) south-southwesterly low-level jet should be
present over the central/eastern Carolinas and southern VA Monday
morning, and this feature is forecast to shift northward across the
Mid-Atlantic through the day. 

Given the strength of the low-level flow and sufficient, albeit
weak, forecast instability, strong to damaging winds may occur with
storms that either persist along the cold front or develop ahead of
it over the open warm sector. A couple tornadoes also appear
possible, mainly across parts of eastern SC/NC/VA to the Delmarva
Peninsula and perhaps NJ in associated with the low-level jet and
potentially greater low-level moisture and instability. Even so,
there is too much uncertainty regarding sufficient destabilization
to include higher severe probabilities for now.

Farther south, low-level convergence along the cold front and
deep-layer shear are both forecast to be somewhat weaker across
coastal GA and the FL Peninsula. Still, there may be isolated
strong/gusty winds with any storms through Monday afternoon.

..Gleason.. 11/28/2020

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