SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook

Day 2 Outlook Image

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1131 AM CST Sat Nov 28 2020

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A PORTION
OF THE GULF COAST STATES INTO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms remain possible Sunday into
Sunday night across southern portions of the Gulf Coast states into
the eastern Carolinas. Damaging winds and a couple of tornadoes are
the main threats.

...Gulf Coast States into the eastern Carolinas...

Closed upper low situated over the southern High Plains as of Mid
day Saturday will advance east and is forecast to becoming an open
wave before deamplifying as it ejects east northeast through the
Southeastern States Sunday afternoon and Sunday night. At the start
of this period, a warm front will extend from a weak surface low off
the southwest LA coast eastward through the northern Gulf. In
response to deep forcing for ascent accompanying the approaching
shortwave trough, the surface low will undergo modest deepening as
it develops northeastward, reaching the southern Appalachians Sunday
night. The attendant warm front will advance inland through southern
portions of the Gulf coast states and the eastern Carolinas, while a
cold front extending southward from the surface low advances
eastward.

How far inland the unstable portion of the warm sector will evolve
remains the primary uncertainty this forecast. Despite the inland
advance of the warm front, widespread showers and thunderstorms are
expected across the northwest Gulf early Sunday within zone of
isentropic ascent north of this boundary. Activity will eventually
spread eastward through the Gulf Coast region in association with
the eastward migrating southerly low-level jet. Thus the effective
boundary separating the more unstable warm sector from the
rain-cooled air might remain offshore or close to the coastal areas.
Favorable vertical wind profiles for organized storms including a
few supercells and bowing segments will overspread this region in
association with the progressive shortwave trough, and potential
will exist for a few severe storms to develop along pre-frontal warm
conveyor belt as well as along the cold front. Too much uncertainty
persists regarding degree of inland destabilization to upgrade the
previous outlook at this time. However, an upgrade to SLGT risk
might be warranted for a portion of this region in day 1 updates.

..Dial.. 11/28/2020

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