SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 AM CST Sat Nov 28 2020 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A PORTION OF THE GULF COAST STATES INTO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms remain possible Sunday into Sunday night across southern portions of the Gulf Coast states into the eastern Carolinas. Damaging winds and a couple of tornadoes are the main threats. ...Gulf Coast States into the eastern Carolinas... Closed upper low situated over the southern High Plains as of Mid day Saturday will advance east and is forecast to becoming an open wave before deamplifying as it ejects east northeast through the Southeastern States Sunday afternoon and Sunday night. At the start of this period, a warm front will extend from a weak surface low off the southwest LA coast eastward through the northern Gulf. In response to deep forcing for ascent accompanying the approaching shortwave trough, the surface low will undergo modest deepening as it develops northeastward, reaching the southern Appalachians Sunday night. The attendant warm front will advance inland through southern portions of the Gulf coast states and the eastern Carolinas, while a cold front extending southward from the surface low advances eastward. How far inland the unstable portion of the warm sector will evolve remains the primary uncertainty this forecast. Despite the inland advance of the warm front, widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected across the northwest Gulf early Sunday within zone of isentropic ascent north of this boundary. Activity will eventually spread eastward through the Gulf Coast region in association with the eastward migrating southerly low-level jet. Thus the effective boundary separating the more unstable warm sector from the rain-cooled air might remain offshore or close to the coastal areas. Favorable vertical wind profiles for organized storms including a few supercells and bowing segments will overspread this region in association with the progressive shortwave trough, and potential will exist for a few severe storms to develop along pre-frontal warm conveyor belt as well as along the cold front. Too much uncertainty persists regarding degree of inland destabilization to upgrade the previous outlook at this time. However, an upgrade to SLGT risk might be warranted for a portion of this region in day 1 updates. ..Dial.. 11/28/2020
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