Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 AM CST Sat Nov 28 2020 Valid 011200Z - 061200Z ...DISCUSSION... Minimal severe potential is expected across the CONUS on both Day 4/Tuesday and Day 5/Wednesday, as offshore low-level trajectories should be maintained over the majority of the Gulf of Mexico and western Atlantic. By late next week, there is some disagreement in medium-range guidance regarding the possible development and subsequent evolution of an upper trough/low over the central/eastern states. Depending on how much low-level moisture return occurs ahead of this feature, there might be some low-end severe potential across parts of the central Gulf Coast and perhaps FL from Day 6/Thursday into Day 7/Friday. But, low predictability in the synoptic-scale pattern and weak forecast instability preclude any 15% severe probabilities at this extended time frame.
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