SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook

Day 3 Outlook Image

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0137 AM CST Sun Nov 29 2020

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z


Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday.

A mature mid-latitude cyclone, with strong flow aloft throughout its
eastern half, is forecast to be centered over the Upper OH Valley
early Tuesday morning. This cyclone will likely move northeastward
into the Lower Great Lakes region while occluding. As it does,
shortwave ridging will move eastward into the MS Valley and another
cyclone will develop over the Plains. This upper pattern progression
will reinforce the stable continental air mass already in place,
limiting low-level moisture and precluding the instability needed
for deep moist convection and lightning production. 

The only lightning potential during the period appears to be early
Wednesday morning along the TX Coast as low-level moisture returns
ahead of an approaching cold front. In this area, broad warm-air
advection amid weak instability may result in a few lightning

..Mosier.. 11/29/2020

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