SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0137 AM CST Sun Nov 29 2020 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... A mature mid-latitude cyclone, with strong flow aloft throughout its eastern half, is forecast to be centered over the Upper OH Valley early Tuesday morning. This cyclone will likely move northeastward into the Lower Great Lakes region while occluding. As it does, shortwave ridging will move eastward into the MS Valley and another cyclone will develop over the Plains. This upper pattern progression will reinforce the stable continental air mass already in place, limiting low-level moisture and precluding the instability needed for deep moist convection and lightning production. The only lightning potential during the period appears to be early Wednesday morning along the TX Coast as low-level moisture returns ahead of an approaching cold front. In this area, broad warm-air advection amid weak instability may result in a few lightning flashes. ..Mosier.. 11/29/2020
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