SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1022 AM CST Sun Nov 29 2020

Valid 291630Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA INTO SOUTHWEST GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND
OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA LATE TONIGHT....

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms may produce a few tornadoes and damaging wind gusts
today and tonight, from parts of the central Gulf Coast to the
eastern Carolinas.

...LA to GA/FL...
Morning water vapor loop shows a significant shortwave trough moving
across OK/AR, with an associated 80kt mid-level jet max rotating
into LA/MS.  This feature is resulting in cyclogenesis off the LA
coast, with a warm front extending eastward from the low roughly
along the Gulf coast of MS/AL/FL.  The surface low and warm front
will move slightly inland this afternoon and evening, with
moist/unstable air overspreading the coastal counties of this
region.  Forecast soundings show ample low-level and deep-layer
shear, favorable for a few supercells and the risk of isolated
tornadoes or damaging wind gusts.  Activity will move into southwest
GA after dark, where a slightly more stable environment should
result in a weakening trend of the storms.

...Eastern NC...
As the aforementioned upper system moves eastward, significant
intensification of the southerly low-level jet is forecast to occur
over the Carolinas/VA.  This will result in a corridor of rapid
destabilization after midnight over parts of eastern NC as dewpoints
rise into the mid/upper 60s.  Vertical shear will be quite strong,
and 12z CAM solutions suggest a few rotating storms may develop. 
There is a risk of a few tornadoes overnight in this region.

..Hart/Kerr.. 11/29/2020

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