SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1022 AM CST Sun Nov 29 2020 Valid 291630Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA INTO SOUTHWEST GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA LATE TONIGHT.... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms may produce a few tornadoes and damaging wind gusts today and tonight, from parts of the central Gulf Coast to the eastern Carolinas. ...LA to GA/FL... Morning water vapor loop shows a significant shortwave trough moving across OK/AR, with an associated 80kt mid-level jet max rotating into LA/MS. This feature is resulting in cyclogenesis off the LA coast, with a warm front extending eastward from the low roughly along the Gulf coast of MS/AL/FL. The surface low and warm front will move slightly inland this afternoon and evening, with moist/unstable air overspreading the coastal counties of this region. Forecast soundings show ample low-level and deep-layer shear, favorable for a few supercells and the risk of isolated tornadoes or damaging wind gusts. Activity will move into southwest GA after dark, where a slightly more stable environment should result in a weakening trend of the storms. ...Eastern NC... As the aforementioned upper system moves eastward, significant intensification of the southerly low-level jet is forecast to occur over the Carolinas/VA. This will result in a corridor of rapid destabilization after midnight over parts of eastern NC as dewpoints rise into the mid/upper 60s. Vertical shear will be quite strong, and 12z CAM solutions suggest a few rotating storms may develop. There is a risk of a few tornadoes overnight in this region. ..Hart/Kerr.. 11/29/2020
There’s more click here.