SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Outlook Image

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0136 PM CST Sun Nov 29 2020

Valid 292000Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST LA
INTO SOUTHWEST GA THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND ACROSS THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS LATE TONIGHT...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms may produce a few tornadoes and damaging wind gusts
through tonight, from parts of the central Gulf Coast to the eastern
Carolinas.

...20z Update...

The only changes with the 20z update were to trim severe and general
thunderstorm probabilities across southwest MS into parts of
southeast LA. These changes are based on the current position of the
surface cold front across southeast MS to near Lake Pontchartrain
and southeast from there into the northern Gulf of Mexico.
Otherwise, the ongoing forecast remains on track. At least a narrow
window of opportunity will exist this evening into tonight across
the FL Panhandle into southwest GA for a few damaging gusts and
possibly a tornado or two. Later tonight into early Monday morning,
the severe threat will increase toward the eastern Carolinas ahead
of the cold front. A couple of tornadoes may accompany these storms
overnight.

..Leitman.. 11/29/2020

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1022 AM CST Sun Nov 29 2020/

...LA to GA/FL...
Morning water vapor loop shows a significant shortwave trough moving
across OK/AR, with an associated 80kt mid-level jet max rotating
into LA/MS.  This feature is resulting in cyclogenesis off the LA
coast, with a warm front extending eastward from the low roughly
along the Gulf coast of MS/AL/FL.  The surface low and warm front
will move slightly inland this afternoon and evening, with
moist/unstable air overspreading the coastal counties of this
region.  Forecast soundings show ample low-level and deep-layer
shear, favorable for a few supercells and the risk of isolated
tornadoes or damaging wind gusts.  Activity will move into southwest
GA after dark, where a slightly more stable environment should
result in a weakening trend of the storms.

...Eastern NC...
As the aforementioned upper system moves eastward, significant
intensification of the southerly low-level jet is forecast to occur
over the Carolinas/VA.  This will result in a corridor of rapid
destabilization after midnight over parts of eastern NC as dewpoints
rise into the mid/upper 60s.  Vertical shear will be quite strong,
and 12z CAM solutions suggest a few rotating storms may develop. 
There is a risk of a few tornadoes overnight in this region.

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