Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0303 AM CST Sun Nov 29 2020 Valid 021200Z - 071200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance is in good agreement that a pair of cyclones, one centered over the central Plains and the other centered over southwest Quebec, will be in place over North America D4/Wednesday morning. The current expectation is Quebec cyclone to eject northeastward D4/Wednesday and D5/Thursday while the Plains cyclone gradually drifts southward/southeastward. After D5/Thursday, the Plains cyclone is expected to become more progressive, moving eastward across the TN Valley/Southeast from D6/Friday through D7/Saturday. However, deterministic and ensemble guidance shows significant spread in the speed and location of this cyclone as it ejects eastward. Some severe potential could result over the Southeast/FL if the moisture return ahead of the cyclone is robust enough. However, predictability is currently too low for much forecast confidence past D5/Thursday.
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