Day 4-8 Outlook

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0303 AM CST Sun Nov 29 2020

Valid 021200Z - 071200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Medium-range guidance is in good agreement that a pair of cyclones,
one centered over the central Plains and the other centered over
southwest Quebec, will be in place over North America D4/Wednesday
morning. The current expectation is Quebec cyclone to eject
northeastward D4/Wednesday and D5/Thursday while the Plains cyclone
gradually drifts southward/southeastward. After D5/Thursday, the
Plains cyclone is expected to become more progressive, moving
eastward across the TN Valley/Southeast from D6/Friday through
D7/Saturday. However, deterministic and ensemble guidance shows
significant spread in the speed and location of this cyclone as it
ejects eastward. Some severe potential could result over the
Southeast/FL if the moisture return ahead of the cyclone is robust
enough. However, predictability is currently too low for much
forecast confidence past D5/Thursday.

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