SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0651 PM CST Sun Nov 29 2020 Valid 300100Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE EASTERN CAROLINAS...AND OVER PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND INTO SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms may produce a couple of tornadoes and a few locally damaging wind gusts tonight, from southern Alabama/southern Georgia/northern Florida to the eastern Carolinas. ...Discussion... Widespread precipitation is ongoing over the southeastern quarter of the country this evening, ahead of the advancing upper low. Thunderstorms -- mainly confined to coastal areas thus far -- have intensified slightly over the northeastern Gulf south of Mobile Bay and western portions of the Florida Panhandle. With the northern fringe of ample surface-based CAPE now present over coastal portions of the Panhandle, a relatively greater risk for severe weather over the next few hours is apparent -- warranting maintenance of the SLGT risk area. A locally damaging wind gust or two, along with some tornado potential, could evolve with any stronger storm moving/developing onshore, as both low-level and deep-layer shear remain favorable. Meanwhile farther north, appreciable CAPE has remained just off the Carolina coast. However, as the surface low -- now over southwestern Alabama -- deepens and shifts quickly north-northeastward overnight, some increase in inland instability could occur, once the warm front passes to the north of the area. Therefore, the SLGT risk area will be maintained here, as well, to cover potential for a tornado or two, through the end of the period. ..Goss.. 11/30/2020
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