SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Outlook Image

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0651 PM CST Sun Nov 29 2020

Valid 300100Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE
EASTERN CAROLINAS...AND OVER PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND INTO
SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms may produce a couple of tornadoes and a few locally
damaging wind gusts tonight, from southern Alabama/southern
Georgia/northern Florida to the eastern Carolinas.

...Discussion...
Widespread precipitation is ongoing over the southeastern quarter of
the country this evening, ahead of the advancing upper low. 
Thunderstorms -- mainly confined to coastal areas thus far -- have
intensified slightly over the northeastern Gulf south of Mobile Bay
and western portions of the Florida Panhandle.  With the northern
fringe of ample surface-based CAPE now present over coastal portions
of the Panhandle, a relatively greater risk for severe weather over
the next few hours is apparent -- warranting maintenance of the SLGT
risk area.  A locally damaging wind gust or two, along with some
tornado potential, could evolve with any stronger storm
moving/developing onshore, as both low-level and deep-layer shear
remain favorable.

Meanwhile farther north, appreciable CAPE has remained just off the
Carolina coast.  However, as the surface low -- now over
southwestern Alabama -- deepens and shifts quickly
north-northeastward overnight, some increase in inland instability
could occur, once the warm front passes to the north of the area. 
Therefore, the SLGT risk area will be maintained here, as well, to
cover potential for a tornado or two, through the end of the period.

..Goss.. 11/30/2020

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