SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook

Day 3 Outlook Image

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0152 AM CST Mon Nov 30 2020

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible over the Texas Coastal Plain and
southern Louisiana on Wednesday.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
A deep upper trough, with two embedded cyclones, is forecast across
the central CONUS early Wednesday morning. Complex interaction
between these cyclones is anticipated during the day as the
southernmost cyclone moves eastward over OK towards the Ozark
Plateau and the northernmost cyclone moves south-southwestward
toward the Four Corners.

Surface low attendant to the southern cyclone will likely begin the
period over TX Red River Valley, but guidance differs on how fast
this low, and its associated cold front, will progress throughout
the day. Low-level moisture return ahead of the front is expected to
bring low 60s dewpoints to the middle/upper TX coast and potentially
southern LA. Uncertainty exists regarding the extent of the moisture
return into LA, largely as a result of differences within the
guidance regarding how fast the surface low progresses eastward. A
slower eastward progression would allow greater moisture return and
higher potential for enough instability to support thunderstorms. 

Kinematic profiles support updraft rotation, particularly later in
the period and with eastern extent, if updrafts are able to persist
and deepen. However, abundant cloud cover will curtail heating and
instability, adding to the uncertainty regarding potential severe
thunderstorms. As a result of this low predictability, severe
probabilities will not be added to this outlook, although
probabilities may be needed in later outlooks once the mesoscale
details become more clear.

..Mosier.. 11/30/2020

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