SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 AM CST Mon Nov 30 2020 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible over the Texas Coastal Plain and southern Louisiana on Wednesday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A deep upper trough, with two embedded cyclones, is forecast across the central CONUS early Wednesday morning. Complex interaction between these cyclones is anticipated during the day as the southernmost cyclone moves eastward over OK towards the Ozark Plateau and the northernmost cyclone moves south-southwestward toward the Four Corners. Surface low attendant to the southern cyclone will likely begin the period over TX Red River Valley, but guidance differs on how fast this low, and its associated cold front, will progress throughout the day. Low-level moisture return ahead of the front is expected to bring low 60s dewpoints to the middle/upper TX coast and potentially southern LA. Uncertainty exists regarding the extent of the moisture return into LA, largely as a result of differences within the guidance regarding how fast the surface low progresses eastward. A slower eastward progression would allow greater moisture return and higher potential for enough instability to support thunderstorms. Kinematic profiles support updraft rotation, particularly later in the period and with eastern extent, if updrafts are able to persist and deepen. However, abundant cloud cover will curtail heating and instability, adding to the uncertainty regarding potential severe thunderstorms. As a result of this low predictability, severe probabilities will not be added to this outlook, although probabilities may be needed in later outlooks once the mesoscale details become more clear. ..Mosier.. 11/30/2020
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