SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1021 AM CST Mon Nov 30 2020

Valid 301630Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THIS AFTERNOON....

...SUMMARY...
At least isolated damaging winds and a couple of tornadoes will be
possible today from parts of Florida into the Carolinas,
Mid-Atlantic and southern New England.

...Mid Atlantic and Carolinas...
A large upper trough is present today over the MS/OH valleys, with a
lead shortwave trough rotating northeastward across WV.  Forcing
ahead of this system has resulted in a band of scattered
thunderstorms from the NC shore southward into central FL.  While
some of the storms off the NC coast appear intense, they are
expected to remain offshore.  

12z CAM solutions suggest some potential for a few thunderstorms to
intensify early this afternoon along the cold front that extends
from central VA into eastern SC.  Wind fields ahead of the front
remain very strong, with low-level shear profiles supportive of
supercells and bowing structures if deep convection can become
established.  Have maintained the ongoing slight risk from southern
NJ into DE/eastern MD/eastern NC through the afternoon.  If
thunderstorms can become established, isolated tornadoes and locally
damaging wind gusts would be possible.

...FL...
The cold front is sagging southward across the central FL peninsula.
 A few strong storms are possible along/ahead of the front this
afternoon, with gusty winds the main risk.

..Hart/Squitieri.. 11/30/2020

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