SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1021 AM CST Mon Nov 30 2020 Valid 301630Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THIS AFTERNOON.... ...SUMMARY... At least isolated damaging winds and a couple of tornadoes will be possible today from parts of Florida into the Carolinas, Mid-Atlantic and southern New England. ...Mid Atlantic and Carolinas... A large upper trough is present today over the MS/OH valleys, with a lead shortwave trough rotating northeastward across WV. Forcing ahead of this system has resulted in a band of scattered thunderstorms from the NC shore southward into central FL. While some of the storms off the NC coast appear intense, they are expected to remain offshore. 12z CAM solutions suggest some potential for a few thunderstorms to intensify early this afternoon along the cold front that extends from central VA into eastern SC. Wind fields ahead of the front remain very strong, with low-level shear profiles supportive of supercells and bowing structures if deep convection can become established. Have maintained the ongoing slight risk from southern NJ into DE/eastern MD/eastern NC through the afternoon. If thunderstorms can become established, isolated tornadoes and locally damaging wind gusts would be possible. ...FL... The cold front is sagging southward across the central FL peninsula. A few strong storms are possible along/ahead of the front this afternoon, with gusty winds the main risk. ..Hart/Squitieri.. 11/30/2020
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