SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 PM CST Mon Nov 30 2020 Valid 302000Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD INTO NEW JERSEY... ...SUMMARY... At least isolated damaging winds and a couple of brief tornadoes are possible this afternoon into the evening from eastern North Carolina into New Jersey. ...Discussion... Only two minor changes were made to previous convective outlook. 1) Reduced probabilities behind the front across VA/NC based on radar/satellite and surface observation trends. 2) Confined the 5-percent tornado probabilities to be located within the tornado watch. Reduced tornado probabilities from 5-percent to 2-percent for southeast VA and eastern NC where thunderstorm development has struggled thus far. ..Smith.. 11/30/2020 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1021 AM CST Mon Nov 30 2020/ ...Mid Atlantic and Carolinas... A large upper trough is present today over the MS/OH valleys, with a lead shortwave trough rotating northeastward across WV. Forcing ahead of this system has resulted in a band of scattered thunderstorms from the NC shore southward into central FL. While some of the storms off the NC coast appear intense, they are expected to remain offshore. 12z CAM solutions suggest some potential for a few thunderstorms to intensify early this afternoon along the cold front that extends from central VA into eastern SC. Wind fields ahead of the front remain very strong, with low-level shear profiles supportive of supercells and bowing structures if deep convection can become established. Have maintained the ongoing slight risk from southern NJ into DE/eastern MD/eastern NC through the afternoon. If thunderstorms can become established, isolated tornadoes and locally damaging wind gusts would be possible. ...FL... The cold front is sagging southward across the central FL peninsula. A few strong storms are possible along/ahead of the front this afternoon, with gusty winds the main risk.
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