SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook

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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0151 PM CST Mon Nov 30 2020

Valid 302000Z - 011200Z


At least isolated damaging winds and a couple of brief tornadoes are
possible this afternoon into the evening from eastern North Carolina
into New Jersey.

Only two minor changes were made to previous convective outlook.
1) Reduced probabilities behind the front across VA/NC based on
radar/satellite and surface observation trends.
2) Confined the 5-percent tornado probabilities to be located within
the tornado watch.  Reduced tornado probabilities from 5-percent to
2-percent for southeast VA and eastern NC where thunderstorm
development has struggled thus far.

..Smith.. 11/30/2020

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1021 AM CST Mon Nov 30 2020/

...Mid Atlantic and Carolinas...
A large upper trough is present today over the MS/OH valleys, with a
lead shortwave trough rotating northeastward across WV.  Forcing
ahead of this system has resulted in a band of scattered
thunderstorms from the NC shore southward into central FL.  While
some of the storms off the NC coast appear intense, they are
expected to remain offshore.  

12z CAM solutions suggest some potential for a few thunderstorms to
intensify early this afternoon along the cold front that extends
from central VA into eastern SC.  Wind fields ahead of the front
remain very strong, with low-level shear profiles supportive of
supercells and bowing structures if deep convection can become
established.  Have maintained the ongoing slight risk from southern
NJ into DE/eastern MD/eastern NC through the afternoon.  If
thunderstorms can become established, isolated tornadoes and locally
damaging wind gusts would be possible.

The cold front is sagging southward across the central FL peninsula.
 A few strong storms are possible along/ahead of the front this
afternoon, with gusty winds the main risk.

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