Day 4-8 Outlook

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0313 AM CST Mon Nov 30 2020

Valid 031200Z - 081200Z

...DISCUSSION...
A complex upper pattern is forecast to be in place across the CONUS
early D4/Thursday, with a mature cyclone likely near the Ozark
Plateau and another cyclone to its west over the Four Corners. Model
guidance quickly diverges regarding the overall pattern evolution,
with notable run-to-run variability, particularly with the
deterministic GFS. GEFS also shows very large standard deviations
over the eastern CONUS after D4/Thursday. Even so, recent runs have
trended towards consensus of a Rex block pattern over the western
CONUS by D6/Saturday.

Even with the uncertainty regarding the overall pattern evolution,
severe thunderstorm potential appears to be quite low. Low-level
moisture may advect far enough inland to support modest instability
across the central Gulf Coast on D4/Thursday and Mid-Atlantic Coast
on D5/Friday. However, severe potential is still expected to remain
quite low. Stable conditions are currently anticipated across the
CONUS this weekend.

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